BTC Price
$69,169
+2.8% 24h
Fair Value
$121,017
-42.8% vs model
Deviation
+42.8% below
vs fair value
Signal
Deep Undervaluation
Updated 2:34:30 PM
Interpretation
Score of 5/100 — BTC is cheaper than 95% of all historical days since 2011.
Institutional-Grade Bitcoin
Valuation & Allocation
Intelligence
A systematic framework for evaluating Bitcoin fair value, cycle positioning, and long-term capital allocation strategy.
What You Get
Structured analytical tools for serious long-term Bitcoin allocators.
BFV Index
Real-time power-law fair value model. Current price vs model fair value, BFV score, risk band, and full historical deviation analysis.
Allocation Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation of long-term Bitcoin allocation strategies. 1,000 paths, three risk profiles, DCA modeling, and fan chart outputs.
Strategic Exit Model
Systematic framework for identifying historically elevated exit zones based on BFV score thresholds and cycle positioning.
What Analysts Are Saying
Trusted by portfolio managers, independent analysts, and serious long-term allocators.
"The BFV Index is the clearest signal I've found for timing Bitcoin allocation decisions. The power-law model cuts through the noise."
Michael R.
Portfolio Manager, Family Office
"I've used LookIntoBitcoin and Glassnode for years. BFV's allocation simulator is the missing piece — it connects valuation to actual position sizing."
Sarah K.
Independent Bitcoin Analyst
"The methodology page alone is worth the subscription. Finally a tool that shows its work and explains the math behind the model."
James T.
Quantitative Researcher
"Set up a BFV alert at score 15 and got notified during the dip. Exactly the kind of systematic trigger I needed to add to my position."
Elena V.
Long-term Bitcoin Allocator
Product Roadmap
We build in public. Here's what's shipped, what's in progress, and what's coming next.
BFV Index Dashboard
Live power-law fair value model with BFV score, risk bands, and historical deviation charts.
Allocation Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation engine with 1,000 paths, three risk profiles, and DCA modeling.
BFV Score Alerts
Set threshold alerts and receive notifications when the BFV score crosses your target level.
Weekly Insights Engine
Weekly BFV commentary and model updates delivered to Pro subscribers every Monday.
Strategic Exit Model
Systematic framework for identifying historically elevated exit zones based on BFV score thresholds.
CSV & PDF Export
Export your BFV history, simulator results, and model parameters for offline analysis.
Get the Weekly BFV Signal
Free weekly Bitcoin valuation update — current BFV score, model commentary, and what it means for your allocation. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Transparent Methodology
The BFV Index is built on a time-based power-law regression model fitted to Bitcoin historical price data. All model parameters are published openly on the Methodology page.
Read the Methodology →Simple, Transparent Pricing
Cancel anytime · No lock-in contracts · Secure payments via Stripe
Free
$0
No credit card required
- Current BTC price
- Current fair value
- Current BFV score
- Risk band label
- Methodology page
BFV Pro
$249/yr
$20.75/mo · Save $99
- Everything in Free
- Full historical BFV series
- Percentile rank analysis
- Price vs fair value chart
- Deviation time-series chart
- Allocation Simulator (1,000 paths)
- Fan chart (25/50/75 percentile)
- BFV Score Alerts (10 max)
2 months free vs monthly
BFV Pro+
$799/yr
$66.58/mo · Save $149
- Everything in Pro
- CSV data export
- BFV Score Alerts (25 max)
- Weekly insights reports
- Priority support
- Early access to new features
2 months free vs monthly
Open Methodology
All model parameters, regression inputs, and assumptions are published openly on the Methodology page — no black boxes.
Quantitative Rigour
Power-law regression fitted to 10 years of daily BTC price data. R² of 0.87 — one of the strongest long-run fits in public Bitcoin research.
Live & Reproducible
Model refreshes every 6 hours from public market data. Every score is reproducible from the published formula — no proprietary data required.