Methodology
How the BFV model works
The core idea is simple: Bitcoin has shown a long-run price trajectory that can be approximated by a power-law relationship over time. The BFV framework compares current price to that modeled trajectory to estimate whether BTC looks cheap, fair, or overheated relative to its own history.
Alpha
5.82
Beta
-17.31
R²
0.92
Data Points
365
1. Power-law fair value
The model assumes Bitcoin’s long-run price behavior can be approximated by a log-log regression using days since genesis and historical price. That produces a fair value curve that changes slowly compared with market price.
2. BFV score
The BFV score converts the current relationship between price and fair value into a simpler 0–100 framing. Lower values imply historically compressed or undervalued conditions; higher values imply increasingly stretched or euphoric conditions.
3. What the model is good for
The model is most useful as a behavioral and valuation framework. It helps long-term investors avoid confusing price excitement with value and can give clearer context during periods of strong dislocation.
4. What the model is not good for
It is not a short-term predictive engine. It does not tell you what Bitcoin will do tomorrow, next week, or next month. It is also not financial advice. It is one framework among many.
5. Why this version is simplified
This rebuild intentionally removes account systems, paid gating, and backend-heavy product logic. The goal is a public site that is faster to deploy, easier to reason about, and easier to iterate on in Vercel.